How to Read Ocean Freight Rate Charts: SCFI, CCFI & What Moves Rates

Companies engaged in export trade often pay attention to ocean freight rate trend charts when arranging shipments and budgets, hoping to understand the current freight rate level and whether it may rise or fall later. A freight rate trend chart is essentially a curve formed by plotting the freight rate index continuously over time. Understanding the index’s basis and the patterns of change in the chart is more important than simply remembering a particular point.

This article introduces commonly used ocean freight rate indices, methods for reading trend charts, and the main factors affecting freight rate fluctuations. The freight rate index reflects the overall reference level of the market, not the transaction price of a specific shipment; actual freight charges are subject to the quotation for that instance.

I. Commonly Used Ocean Freight Rate Indices

Among the indices most commonly cited in the international ocean shipping market, those compiled and published by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange mainly include the following:

In addition, internationally there are also the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), and others. Because the compiling institutions and sampling methodologies differ, their point levels should not be directly compared across indices; instead, one should observe the change trend of the same index itself.

II. How to Read the Trend Chart

To read an ocean freight rate trend chart, grasp the following perspectives:

1. Look at the composite index first, then route-specific indices: The composite index reflects the overall market conditions, while companies actually ship on specific routes. For example, the US West Coast and Europe routes may move in opposite directions at different times, so judge against the route you are shipping on.
2. Look at week-over-week and year-over-year changes: Week-over-week reflects the speed of short-term changes, while year-over-year (comparison with the same period last year) helps determine whether the current level is relatively high or low.
3. Distinguish spot rates from contract rates: Spot indices such as SCFI are more volatile; cargo with long-term contracts with shipping lines executes contractual freight rates and is less affected by short-term fluctuations in the spot market.
4. Observe seasonal patterns: In the second half of each year, the Christmas stocking season and the shipping peak before Spring Festival often push freight rates up; the period after Spring Festival is usually a traditional slack season. Seasonality is a reference pattern, and specific years vary depending on supply and demand conditions.
5. Pay attention to the magnitude and speed of fluctuations: A slowly climbing curve and a rapid rise in a short period correspond to different degrees of market tightness. The latter often means space is tightening, requiring earlier booking arrangements.

III. Main Factors Affecting the Rise and Fall of Ocean Freight Rates

Every rise and fall in the freight rate curve is usually the result of the following factors working together:

• Space Supply and Cargo Volume Demand: The total capacity deployed by vessels is relatively fixed. When cargo volume on a given route increases sharply and space tightens, freight rates rise; when demand weakens, the opposite occurs.
• Seasonal Stockpiling Rhythm: European and American retailers' concentrated pre-holiday stockpiling and the domestic rush to ship goods before the Spring Festival both create periodic peaks.
• Fuel Costs: Changes in marine fuel prices affect shipping costs and are reflected through fuel surcharges and other forms.
• Port Congestion and Emergencies: Port strikes, severe weather, waterway congestion, geopolitical events, etc. reduce effective capacity and drive freight rate fluctuations in the short term.
• Empty Container Repositioning: When containers are imbalanced between regions or there is a shortage of containers at ports of origin, shipping arrangements and costs can also be affected.
• Exchange Rate Changes: International freight rates are mostly denominated in U.S. dollars, and exchange rate fluctuations affect the local-currency cost after conversion.

For further interpretation of these factors, see Why Are Ocean Freight Rates Rising in 2026? An In-Depth Analysis of the 5 Major Factors Affecting Freight Costs and Factors Affecting Container Ocean Freight Rates.

IV. How Enterprises Use Trend Charts

The value of freight rate trend charts to shippers lies mainly in assisting planning, not in precise forecasting:

• Arrange shipment timing: plan non-urgent orders in advance during traditional off-seasons and periods of stable freight rates; for peak-season cargo, book space as early as possible to secure relatively stable capacity and pricing.
• Use as a budgeting reference: based on the index's current range and trend, set aside reasonable room for logistics costs on future orders.
• Use as context for price inquiries: after understanding the broader market, you have a better basis for judgment when discussing quotes with freight forwarders. It should be noted that quotes vary greatly by port of departure, shipping line, and service scope (whether trucking, customs declaration, insurance, and door-to-door service are included); the index level cannot be equated with the transaction price for specific cargo.

Further Reading

• How to inquire about ocean freight rates: what information to prepare beforehand and what charges are included in a quote
• What items are included in an international ocean freight rate list: item-by-item explanation of quotation charges

Conclusion

The ocean freight rate trend chart is a tool for observing the market: identify the correct index basis, compare it against specific routes, and understand the supply-demand logic behind rises and falls, and you can use it to support shipment planning and budgeting. Market fluctuations are normal; a professional freight forwarder will provide current quotes and scheduling recommendations based on your route and shipping time.

Bofeng Logistics has long specialized in export ocean freight in the Pearl River Delta, offering one-stop services such as FCL, LCL, drayage, customs clearance, and insurance. You are welcome to consult current freight rates based on your shipment plan.

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