I. Core Assessment
In 2026, ocean freight rates "cannot rise, nor fall," and while the Europe route is declining and the US route is rising—divergence is the underlying tone of this year's rate market. The basis is that the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) pulled back twice from 2,850 points at the beginning of the year to 2,420 points in early June, still 18% higher than the same period last year; entering August, spot rates on the Europe route have entered a downward channel, while the US route surged over 12% month-on-month amid a rush to ship (SCFI, 2026-07-31). The freight rate cycle is retreating from its peak, but the retreat is divergent and staggered, not a broad decline. The recommendation is "lock in floor rates with long-term contracts + keep flexibility in spot rates + diversify carriers," with strategies by route: US-bound shippers should lock in quickly, Europe-bound shippers should wait.
2. Why Freight Rates "Won't Drop": Three Forces Propping Up the Bottom
1. Supply side: Record new ship deliveries, but effective capacity hasn't kept up
According to Alphaliner data, global container fleet capacity increased by approximately 1.8 million TEU in the first half of 2026, with ships above 12,000 TEU accounting for over 60%. However, new vessels have not fully translated into "effective capacity" — the Red Sea situation has forced major shipping lines to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage times by 10–14 days per trip, which effectively absorbs about 6%–8% of global capacity. Shipping lines then use three tactics—blank sailings, slow steaming, and route adjustments—to control capacity, keeping freight rates elevated.
2. Demand side: moderate recovery, and structural
The IMF's April World Economic Outlook forecasts global trade volume growth of 3.3% in 2026, higher than 2.8% in 2025. However, data from China Customs show that in the first five months, dollar-denominated exports grew 4.8% year-on-year, with exports to ASEAN up 9.2%, to Latin America up 11.5%, and growth to Europe and the US slowing to 2.1% (General Administration of Customs, 2026-06). Those doing business in Southeast Asia and Latin America do not feel "weak demand," while those in Europe and the US feel the opposite—the difference in freight rate perception is essentially a difference in market structure. The dividends of RCEP continue to be released, and intra-Asian container cargo volume grew by approximately 7% year-on-year.
3. Structure: Alliances make freight rates "easier to rise than fall," while geopolitics and cargo rushes push the baseline to high levels
Clarksons Research data shows that in the first half of 2026, the composite shipping freight index surged 61% year-on-year to about $39,000 per day, close to the highest half-year level on record (Clarksons, 2026-07-21). Red Sea detours, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the "rush-to-ship wave" triggered by U.S. tariff adjustments have jointly pushed the freight rate baseline to a high level. Global major container routes are highly concentrated in the three major alliances, giving shipping lines incentives to protect rates through blanked sailings; on-time performance on Europe routes has recovered to 52%, still below the pre-crisis level of 75%—service uncertainty is also "lifting the floor" under freight rates.
3. By Route: Three Lines, Three Rhythms
Europe routes: Geopolitics is reshaping the shipping landscape; the bottleneck is cargo volume, not capacity.
Freight rates on European routes fell by about 22% cumulatively in March and stabilized in May (SCFI). With Red Sea rerouting now normalized, shipping lines have mature operational experience, but the costs have been internalized. Notably, the China-Europe Railway Express is diverting cargo; in the first five months, departures rose about 12% year on year to 7,200 trains — shippers on European routes now have a truly usable alternative. On this route, carriers are competing for cargo, so shippers have room to negotiate.
US routes: Long-term contract negotiations set the pace—lock in US route rates promptly
In the first half of the year, the core focus for US routes was the annual long-term contract negotiations. With spot freight rates staying high, negotiations between shipping lines and cargo owners were intense. Ultimately, US West Coast long-term contracts were locked at USD 1,600–1,800/FEU (up 25% from last year's long-term rate), and US East Coast at roughly +15%. Note: The above are publicly available long-term contract rates, not our company's quotations. With the Panama Canal transit restored, capacity on US East Coast routes is relatively ample—for friends doing US routes, long-term contract rates have already locked in upward room, leaving limited spot market flexibility in the second half of the year. The key is to secure long-term contracts and keep an eye on peak-season space.
Within Asia: The Hottest Segment — It's Not Price, It's Container Space
Freight rates on routes from China to Vietnam and Thailand are stable at $400–600/TEU, with utilization rates above 90% (SCFI). The rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce exports is the main driver — Chinese logistics companies such as Cainiao and J&T Express continue to expand their warehousing and distribution networks in Southeast Asia, boosting demand for the Trans-Asian Railway and sea-rail intermodal transport. For those doing business in Southeast Asia, freight rates are low but space is tight.
4. August Update: Futures Research Reports Confirm 'Peak Season Falls Short'
In June, the official website released the "2026 Shipping Market Mid-Year Review," predicting a "slight rebound in freight rates during the peak season," but in August, the actual data tracked by futures companies points in another direction:
| Indicator | Latest Value | Time | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCFI Shanghai–Europe | USD 3,039/TEU (MoM -3.68%) | 7/31 | Shanghai Shipping Exchange |
| SCFI Shanghai–US West Coast | USD 6,229/FEU (MoM +12.5%) | 7/31 | Shanghai Shipping Exchange |
Three cross-validating logics:
- The bellwether is taking the lead in cutting prices: Maersk has repeatedly lowered its opening prices on the Europe route and reduced its peak season surcharge (PSS). As the bellwether for Europe route prices, it is actively showing weakness, making it harder for other shipping lines to hold prices firm in the short term (Guotai Junan 08-05).
- Demand is a pulse, not a trend: In August, Europe enters the summer holiday period, and booking demand is weakening marginally; the previous round of rebound was mainly driven by a supply-side pulse caused by port congestion from typhoons. After the typhoons subside, freight rates remain under pressure (Guotai Junan 08-05).
- Supply pressure lies next year, and orders are still hitting new highs: In 2026, the pressure from new ship deliveries is relatively small (a cumulative 116 ships / approximately 8.4 million TEU in the first half of the year), but global container shipping order books have reached 1,668 ships / 11.3 million TEU, accounting for 38.3% of existing capacity, a record high (Clarksons). The wave of 17,000+ TEU large vessel deliveries from 2027 to 2029 (38/81/90 ships per year, respectively) implies clear downward pressure on the medium-term freight rate center (Huatai Futures 08-06).
5. Outlook for the Second Half: Structural Modest Gains, Not a Peak-Season Surge
The market is about to enter the traditional peak season (July–October), but the fundamentals differ from previous years: on the supply side, pressure from new vessel deliveries will become more apparent in the second half (an estimated ~200,000 TEU); on the demand side, the restocking cycle in Europe and the U.S. may be nearing its end. More crucially, the stocking schedule has shifted earlier—the traditional peak season on the Europe route is the Christmas stocking period from July to September, but in 2026 volumes are concentrated from May to July, with month-on-month declines starting in August and the off-season beginning in late September. Institutions forecast only 2.5%–3.5% growth in Asia-Europe route volumes in 2026, significantly below the pace of capacity expansion (Dalu Futures 08-05).
Overall assessment: Freight rates may see a modest rebound in peak season, but are unlikely to surpass the highs of the first half of the year. The dominant forces in the first half were demand and policy (tariff front-loading, Red Sea geopolitics), but by 2027 they will shift to supply (a wave of large vessel deliveries)—so locking in prices requires calculating two things at once: follow the rhythm of demand in the short term, and avoid oversupply in the medium term. For exporters, this means: do not stock up based on the old assumption that peak season always brings a price surge. The 2026 peak season will most likely see a "structural uptick," and locking in space early and shipping in batches is more stable than betting on a spot-rate spike.
6. Implementation List for Export Enterprises
- Strategy by route: For US routes, resilience first — space > price; shippers should prioritize locking long-term contracts and securing space. For Europe routes, cost first — price > transit time; shippers should ship in batches and wait, don't chase high prices in a downward price channel.
- Tiered rate locking: Base volume goes under long-term contracts to lock in a floor; flexible volume uses spot rates to keep options open — covering both ends leaves room on both sides.
- Diversify carriers + compare more: Quotes among the three alliances have already diverged (price differences on the same route can reach hundreds of dollars). Don't put all cargo with one alliance; only then will you have negotiation room and space during peak season.
- Stagger stockpiling: 2026 cargo volume has already moved forward to May–July, and August is an off-season window — if production can be scheduled earlier, don't delay until September. When booking, remember to count back from the customs closing date: Europe routes generally close customs 2–3 weeks in advance, with a transit time of 30–40 days; don't calculate based on the shipping date.
- Alternative routes: For Europe, pay attention to the China-Europe Railway Express and multimodal transport; for the US, look at East Coast space; for Southeast Asia, compete for space rather than lowering prices.
What signals to watch in the next 1–3 months: Confirming judgments requires tracking — no need to watch the market every day; five leading indicators suffice: ① Maersk/CMA CGM weekly Europe route opening rates (whether the bellwether continues to decline); ② SCFI week-on-week change (whether US routes have peaked and Europe routes have bottomed); ③ EC futures September vs October contract spread (whether market expectations are pricing in an increase or decrease); ④ New vessel delivery progress (July–September off-season is the delivery window); ⑤ Red Sea/Hormuz geopolitical news (if diversions end, the decline in the freight rate center will accelerate).
Boundary statement: This report is based on the baseline scenario of "continued geopolitical diversions + moderate peak-season replenishment"; if geopolitical tensions ease rapidly or Q4 replenishment exceeds expectations, the freight rate center will decline faster or see a second surge — at that time, recalibrate based on the tracking signals.
Data Sources and Disclaimer
The data in this report is cited from: Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), Alphaliner, Clarksons Research, IMF World Economic Outlook, General Administration of Customs of China, and the Ministry of Transport, and cross-verified against Bofeng Logistics' official website "2026 Maritime Market Semi-Annual Review" (August 2026); the August actuals are cited from Huatai Futures "Shipping Daily" (2026-08-06), Guotai Junan Futures "Container Shipping Europe Route Daily" (2026-08-05), Galaxy Futures "Shipping and Carbon Emissions Daily" (2026-08-05), and Dalu Futures "Container Shipping Index (Europe Route) Weekly" (2026-08-05). The freight rate ranges in the report are all publicly available market data, not our company's quotations. Actual bookings are subject to real-time quotes from shipping companies/freight forwarders. This report's judgments are based on the time point of August 2026 and are subject to uncontrollable factors such as geopolitics and shipping company capacity policies, with a validity of approximately 3–6 months. It is for industry reference only and does not constitute a pricing basis.
Further Reading
- “2026 Half-Year Review of the Ocean Shipping Market: Freight Rates Fluctuate at High Levels, Shipping Lines’ Strategies Diverge”
- “International Ocean Shipping Operations Manual: Freight Cost Structure and Calculation Methods”
- “China–U.S. International Shipping Dedicated Line”
About Bofeng Logistics
Bofeng Logistics specializes in domestic/international container shipping, international air freight, and Hong Kong-Macau logistics dedicated lines. Leveraging long-term partnerships with multiple shipping lines, we provide export enterprises with stable space assurance and competitive freight arrangements. For current rates and space recommendations by route, feel free to inquire online or call 130-7567-8958.