Since the start of 2026, many foreign trade business owners have noticed another increase in ocean freight rates. The price for a 40-foot high cube container to the U.S. West Coast has surged from $2,500 at the end of last year to $3,800 now, an increase of over 50%.
What exactly is happening? Will freight rates continue to rise? When can we expect them to drop?
This article breaks down the root causes of the current freight rate surge from five dimensions, helping you explain the changes in shipping costs to your clients with greater confidence.
1. Ongoing Red Sea Crisis and Diversions——Capacity "Eaten Up"
The Red Sea crisis that erupted at the end of 2023 has yet to be fully resolved. Most shipping lines are still diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, directly increasing voyage time and fuel consumption by approximately 30%.
Let the data speak:
- Diverting via the Cape of Good Hope vs. transiting the Suez Canal: voyage distance increases by about 3,500 nautical miles
- Asia→Europe voyage extends from 28 days to around 38 days
- Effective global container fleet capacity has decreased by approximately 12%-15%
There are no signs of a fundamental short-term solution to this issue. As long as diversions continue, it will be difficult for freight rates to return to the low levels of 2023.
2. Shipping Lines Continue to "Control the Market"——Active Restraint on the Supply Side
After the pandemic, shipping lines learned one thing: more ships don't necessarily mean more profit. Controlling capacity supply is key to maintaining high freight rates.
From 2024-2026, major shipping lines have been actively managing capacity through the following methods:
- Blank Sailings: Maersk, MSC, and others regularly cancel certain voyages, creating a sense of capacity tightness
- Vessel Scrapping: Accelerated scrapping of older vessels, coupled with a slowdown in new vessel deliveries
- Alliance Adjustments: The restructuring of alliance networks, such as the Gemini Alliance, leads to capacity mismatches during the transition period
This is not purely market-driven; it's an active strategy by the shipping lines. When the world's TOP 5 shipping lines control over 65% of global capacity, the supply side holds much more bargaining power than cargo owners.
3. Geopolitical Uncertainty——Impacts Far Beyond the Red Sea
In addition to the Red Sea crisis, geopolitical factors affecting shipping in 2026 include:
- US-China Trade Frictions: Tariff policy changes trigger a rush to ship goods—cargo is concentratedly shipped before tariff increases, pushing up freight rates in the short term
- EU Carbon Tariff (EU ETS): The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, implemented gradually from 2024, expanded its coverage in 2026, causing shipping lines to pass carbon costs onto cargo owners
- Regional Conflict Spillover: Geopolitical conflicts drive up international oil prices, leading to increases in Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF)
4. Continuous Boom in Cross-border E-commerce——Structural Demand Growth
The global expansion of cross-border e-commerce platforms such as SHEIN, Temu, and TikTok Shop represents the most significant structural change in maritime shipping demand over the past three years.
- The share of cross-border e-commerce in global seaborne cargo volumes has risen from approximately 5% in 2020 to an estimated 15% or more in 2026
- These platforms primarily operate with small-volume, high-frequency shipping models, driving demand for both LCL and FCL
- The peak season for China→US cross-border e-commerce logistics (Q3-Q4) overlaps with the traditional foreign trade peak season, further elevating freight rate peaks in Q3-Q4
This trend is not short-term. The share of cross-border e-commerce in global retail is still increasing, meaning the structural growth in maritime demand will likely persist for at least another 3-5 years.
5. Port Congestion——Old Problems Persist, New Problems Arise
Port congestion eased after peaking in 2021-2022, but it hasn't disappeared—it has just shifted:
- European Ports: Ports like Hamburg and Rotterdam experience increased congestion due to concentrated arrival times caused by Red Sea diversions
- Southeast Asian Ports: Transshipment hubs like Singapore and Port Klang see a surge in throughput due to adjusted shipping routes
- US Ports: Periodic labor negotiation tensions on the US West Coast persist
Port congestion means longer waiting times for vessels – which translates to further consumption of vessel capacity.
Outlook for Freight Rate Trends in the Second Half of 2026
| Factor | H2 2026 Forecast | Impact on Freight Rates |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sea Situation | Will not be resolved quickly | ⬆ Supports higher rates |
| Shipping Line Capacity Strategy | Proactive capacity management continues | ⬆ Supports higher rates |
| Q3-Q4 Peak Season | Traditional peak + e-commerce peak overlap | ⬆ Pushes rates up |
| New Vessel Deliveries | Some new ships entering service | ⬇ Alleviates pressure |
| Global Economy | Slowing growth, weaker demand | ⬇ Suppresses rates |
Overall Assessment: Freight rates will likely remain high with fluctuations in the second half of 2026. There is room for further increases during the Q3 peak season, but a seasonal correction may occur from late Q4 into early 2027. It is advisable for foreign trade companies to plan shipping schedules in advance to avoid peak rate periods.
If you need to learn about current real-time freight rates or wish to plan your shipping schedule for the latter half of the year, feel free to contact the Bofeng Logistics team.
Bofeng Logistics specializes in providing one-stop logistics services including domestic container shipping, international shipping (FCL/LCL), Hong Kong/Macao logistics routes, as well as trailer trucking, customs clearance, and warehousing. Contact us at 130-7567-8958 (Manager Huang) or call now for a customized quote!